The COVID-19 healthHealth crisis has highlighted how the collective behavioralBehavioral responseResponse of a populationPopulation—for instance, the decision on whether to take up appropriate self-protective behaviors—plays a critical role in shaping the outcome of an epidemicEpidemic outbreak. Here, we briefly survey the seminal works and the state-of-the-art modelsModels proposed to capture and predict the complex and intertwined coevolutionary dynamics of epidemicsEpidemics and behavioralBehavioral response, with a special focus on the methodological approaches proposed in the systems and control community. Then, we present and discuss a general frameworkFramework to model such a coevolutionary dynamics and we illustrate its potentialities. Finally, we validate our modeling approach by presenting an implementation of the proposed frameworkFramework tailored to capture the collective behavioralBehavioral responseResponse to COVID-19, and we use such a parameterized model to discuss different what/if scenarios concerning the implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions.

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Systems and Control Approaches for  Modeling  the Coevolution of  Epidemics  and  Behavioral  Response: A COVID-19 Case Study

  • Lorenzo Zino,
  • Luca Ambrosino,
  • Alessandro Rizzo,
  • Ming Cao

摘要

The COVID-19 healthHealth crisis has highlighted how the collective behavioralBehavioral responseResponse of a populationPopulation—for instance, the decision on whether to take up appropriate self-protective behaviors—plays a critical role in shaping the outcome of an epidemicEpidemic outbreak. Here, we briefly survey the seminal works and the state-of-the-art modelsModels proposed to capture and predict the complex and intertwined coevolutionary dynamics of epidemicsEpidemics and behavioralBehavioral response, with a special focus on the methodological approaches proposed in the systems and control community. Then, we present and discuss a general frameworkFramework to model such a coevolutionary dynamics and we illustrate its potentialities. Finally, we validate our modeling approach by presenting an implementation of the proposed frameworkFramework tailored to capture the collective behavioralBehavioral responseResponse to COVID-19, and we use such a parameterized model to discuss different what/if scenarios concerning the implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions.