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This study analyzes the resilience of China's industrial and supply chains and their coping strategies in response to the trend of capacity relocation by foreign enterprises. Amid the rising trend of de-globalization in recent years, multilateral trade agreements (such as CPTPP, USMCA, EUJEPA, IPEF, etc.) have reshaped the global economic landscape, significantly impacting China's economy. By constructing a Global Industrial Value Chain Network (GIVCN) model based on the Regionally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output (RE - MRIO) table, this paper systematically evaluates the changes in Import Dependence Index (IIDI) and Industrial Processing Trade Index (IPTI) of various Chinese industrial sectors under different trade agreements and external shocks. The findings reveal the potential risks and opportunities for China's industrial chains posed by specific trade agreements, providing effective decision-making support for policymakers to address the challenges brought by global supply chain restructuring and changes in the economic environment.

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Impact of Multilateral Trade Agreements on the Import Dependency of Major Provinces in China

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Ying Guo,
  • Xiqing Bi,
  • Hanbai Wang,
  • Weixuan Chen,
  • Lizhi Xing

摘要

This study analyzes the resilience of China's industrial and supply chains and their coping strategies in response to the trend of capacity relocation by foreign enterprises. Amid the rising trend of de-globalization in recent years, multilateral trade agreements (such as CPTPP, USMCA, EUJEPA, IPEF, etc.) have reshaped the global economic landscape, significantly impacting China's economy. By constructing a Global Industrial Value Chain Network (GIVCN) model based on the Regionally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output (RE - MRIO) table, this paper systematically evaluates the changes in Import Dependence Index (IIDI) and Industrial Processing Trade Index (IPTI) of various Chinese industrial sectors under different trade agreements and external shocks. The findings reveal the potential risks and opportunities for China's industrial chains posed by specific trade agreements, providing effective decision-making support for policymakers to address the challenges brought by global supply chain restructuring and changes in the economic environment.