The Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition
摘要
This chapter provides a succinct but comprehensive overview of the geopolitics of the global energy transition literature. It is divided into two parts. The first presents the main assumptions and expectations regarding the global energy transition winners vs. losers conundrum. This part is structured across the energy security, economic power and foreign policy/power position dimensions, and aims to provide a nuanced discussion of the risks and premiums inherent in the global energy transition. A detailed discussion of the key materialities of the global energy transition is provided to distill the new challenges and opportunities the global energy transition generates for importers and exporters. The second part reviews the main conclusions of the literature regarding the conflictive vs cooperative potential of the global energy transition, before turning its attention to five potential hotspots of energy transition-induced conflict. These are instability emanating from the decline of petrostates, with an amplified focus on Russia, conflict to secure land critical for the needs of the energy transition and separatist potential precipitated by decentralized energy dynamics, the risk of global economic collapse due to fossil divestment and an aggravation of ecological conditions due to the energy transition, that also undermines the plight of indigenous communities.