This chapter contains a quantitative analysis of the relationship between one-sided violence against civilians and peace; that is, whether high levels of one-sided violence increase conflict duration and/or undermine the durability of peace, once achieved. The analysis uses the Cox proportional hazard model, which measures the hazard rate, or the potential that the event of interest will occur, given that it has yet to occur up to the specified point in time. The results of the analysis indicate a statistically significant relationship between levels of one-sided violence and conflict duration, though not for the durability of peace. When disaggregating by actor type, I find that the results are driven by violence committed by non-state actors.

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Quantitative Analysis

  • Jenna Russo

摘要

This chapter contains a quantitative analysis of the relationship between one-sided violence against civilians and peace; that is, whether high levels of one-sided violence increase conflict duration and/or undermine the durability of peace, once achieved. The analysis uses the Cox proportional hazard model, which measures the hazard rate, or the potential that the event of interest will occur, given that it has yet to occur up to the specified point in time. The results of the analysis indicate a statistically significant relationship between levels of one-sided violence and conflict duration, though not for the durability of peace. When disaggregating by actor type, I find that the results are driven by violence committed by non-state actors.