In the coming decades, we can expect the impacts of climate change to result in more intense and frequent hazards. Consequently, the need to reduce the vulnerability of communities is becoming more pressing. In the Philippines, high intensity typhoons capitalise on rapid urbanisation, lack of preparedness, among other factors, to produce devasting disasters. In this study, we focus on understanding displacement pathways of hazard-displaced persons to increase disaster preparedness in the Philippines. Hazards, such as typhoons, are often a movement triggering event, prompting affected individuals and households to seek safe shelter. Using agent-based modelling, we simulated the effects of such hazards on affected populations to model where displacement flows may occur in the Philippines. Based on regional demographic and economic data from the Philippine census, we show how socioeconomic factors influence population movement post-disaster. The results from our model show (1) a 23% increase in overall human movement from 2000 to 2050, (2) identification of Region XII and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao as top destination locations, (3) a immigration-driven population growth up to 10 million people in these regions, and (4) an increased rate of inequitable asset distribution. Our model may be useful for planners and engineers in the pre-hazard preparedness phase of disaster risk reduction by identifying areas in need of resource allocation during and after typhoons.

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Using Agent-Based Modelling to Analyse Typhoon Displacement in the Philippines

  • Emily C. Nabong,
  • Killian Verder,
  • Alexander Mars,
  • Aaron Opdyke

摘要

In the coming decades, we can expect the impacts of climate change to result in more intense and frequent hazards. Consequently, the need to reduce the vulnerability of communities is becoming more pressing. In the Philippines, high intensity typhoons capitalise on rapid urbanisation, lack of preparedness, among other factors, to produce devasting disasters. In this study, we focus on understanding displacement pathways of hazard-displaced persons to increase disaster preparedness in the Philippines. Hazards, such as typhoons, are often a movement triggering event, prompting affected individuals and households to seek safe shelter. Using agent-based modelling, we simulated the effects of such hazards on affected populations to model where displacement flows may occur in the Philippines. Based on regional demographic and economic data from the Philippine census, we show how socioeconomic factors influence population movement post-disaster. The results from our model show (1) a 23% increase in overall human movement from 2000 to 2050, (2) identification of Region XII and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao as top destination locations, (3) a immigration-driven population growth up to 10 million people in these regions, and (4) an increased rate of inequitable asset distribution. Our model may be useful for planners and engineers in the pre-hazard preparedness phase of disaster risk reduction by identifying areas in need of resource allocation during and after typhoons.