The Effect of Monetary Policy and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on Bank Credit Risk
摘要
This chapter investigates the relationship between monetary policy, global policy uncertainty, and credit risk in Ghana, employing the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. Utilizing quarterly data spanning from 2010q1 to 2022q4, our analysis unveils a cointegrating relationship among monetary policy, global economic policy uncertainty, and credit risk. However, we fail to find an asymmetric relationship between monetary policy and the non-performing loan ratio. Our findings reveal a positive long-run relationship between the monetary policy rate and the non-performing loan ratio, contrasting with a negative short-term relationship. Additionally, global economic policy uncertainty exerts a negative influence on credit risk, both in the long run and short run. Furthermore, variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, inflation rate, capital adequacy ratio, and bank performance (as measured by the return on equity) significantly impact the non-performing loan ratio in both temporal dimensions. Based on the findings, several policy recommendations are proposed, including improving communication from monetary authorities to help banks and borrowers anticipate and adjust to policy changes. Banks should also strengthen their credit risk management by conducting thorough borrower assessments, monitoring continuously, and implementing effective risk mitigation strategies. Additionally, stricter regulatory oversight is needed to ensure banks maintain adequate capital reserves to withstand economic disruptions and reduce the likelihood of non-performing loans. These measures are essential for promoting financial stability and resilience, which are crucial for sustainable economic development.