Climate change is accelerating due to increased human activities and the associated increase in the greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change has impacted the parameters of the hydrologic cycle, including temperature, wind and precipitation patterns. Climate change might affect hydrological regimes and increase the likelihood of extreme events such as extended drought and flash floods. The Middle East is among the most vulnerable areas to climate change. The UAE, like other countries in the Middle East, is vulnerable to extreme weather events including drought and flood. Climate change represents a main challenge for water resources management in many countries. The drought is a natural hazard that might become more frequent under changing weather conditions. Drought analysis is usually conducted using different drought indices, but the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is the most used method and is recommended by the World Meteorological Organization for monitoring drought conditions in various areas across the world. This study aims to assess the long-term drought in the northern area of UAE using SPI based on recorded monthly rainfall data from land stations for a period of 40 years from 1980 to 2020. SPI-12 months were calculated using DrinC to examine meteorological drought that may affect water resources. Four stations have been selected for rainfall trend and SPI analysis. Rainfall trends analysis showed that Masafi station had the highest annual rainfall (134.7 mm) and Um Ghafa station had the lowest (43.0 mm). Rainfall trend analysis showed a significant decline at most of the stations, possibly due to climate change in the last two decades. According to SPI-12 results, moderate droughts occurred in 2001 and 2005, severe droughts occurred in 2010 and 2011, while extreme droughts occurred in 2012 and 2016. The driest years were 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2016 and the estimated average return period is 3–4 years. All the studied stations had a decreasing trend in rainfall, indicating that climate change would have a significant impact on the UAE's water resources and more drought periods are expected. The findings of the study will allow for proper management of the UAE's water resources and adaptation to climate change.

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Assessing the Impact of Long-Term Drought on Water Resources in Arid Regions Under Climate Change Conditions

  • Hany F. Abd-Elhamid,
  • Mohsen Sherif,
  • Martina Zeleňáková,
  • Ahmed Sefelnasr,
  • Tatiana Sol’áková,
  • Mohamed Mahdy

摘要

Climate change is accelerating due to increased human activities and the associated increase in the greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change has impacted the parameters of the hydrologic cycle, including temperature, wind and precipitation patterns. Climate change might affect hydrological regimes and increase the likelihood of extreme events such as extended drought and flash floods. The Middle East is among the most vulnerable areas to climate change. The UAE, like other countries in the Middle East, is vulnerable to extreme weather events including drought and flood. Climate change represents a main challenge for water resources management in many countries. The drought is a natural hazard that might become more frequent under changing weather conditions. Drought analysis is usually conducted using different drought indices, but the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is the most used method and is recommended by the World Meteorological Organization for monitoring drought conditions in various areas across the world. This study aims to assess the long-term drought in the northern area of UAE using SPI based on recorded monthly rainfall data from land stations for a period of 40 years from 1980 to 2020. SPI-12 months were calculated using DrinC to examine meteorological drought that may affect water resources. Four stations have been selected for rainfall trend and SPI analysis. Rainfall trends analysis showed that Masafi station had the highest annual rainfall (134.7 mm) and Um Ghafa station had the lowest (43.0 mm). Rainfall trend analysis showed a significant decline at most of the stations, possibly due to climate change in the last two decades. According to SPI-12 results, moderate droughts occurred in 2001 and 2005, severe droughts occurred in 2010 and 2011, while extreme droughts occurred in 2012 and 2016. The driest years were 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2016 and the estimated average return period is 3–4 years. All the studied stations had a decreasing trend in rainfall, indicating that climate change would have a significant impact on the UAE's water resources and more drought periods are expected. The findings of the study will allow for proper management of the UAE's water resources and adaptation to climate change.