Nowadays global shifts in supply networks state the problem of building of new mathematical models to analyze medium-term macroeconomic risks of local economies in view of important economic restrictions and substitution of production factors. The methods are most importantly for catching-up economies with high rates of economic growth. In the paper we suggest the nonlinear generalization of Leontief Input-Output approach which supposes the possibility of inputs substitution in a production network in conditions of industrial capacity limitations. We state and investigate the competitive equilibrium evaluation problem in the space of intersectoral cash flows and prices as a pair of Young dual convex optimization problems. In the case of CES production we have an explicit solution that gives the equilibrium point of the problem, which includes the dependence on shadow prices which are the result of capacities lack. Based on official statistics we discuss the model application to evaluation of inflation risks in fast developing Kazakhstan economy. In terms of the model we analyze inflation risks caused by the possible lack of infrastructure services in scenario conditions based on the official macroeconomic forecast of Kazakhstan.