Assessment of Progressive Behaviour of Deep-Seated Kotropi Landslides (Himachal Pradesh) Using the 3D Limit Equilibrium Method
摘要
Large or deep-seated progressive landslides pose significant challenges due to the complex failure mechanism and the potential for recurring failures. Progressive landslides are characterized by a gradual and continuous downslope movement of soil and rock material over an extended period. Analysing the evolution of deformation within a large landslide can provide valuable insights about the location and direction of progressive sliding events which may lead to severe instability. Identification of the progressive failure in large and deep-seated landslides is essential for risk assessment, timely adopting mitigation strategies, and ensuring public safety. The August 2017 Kotropi landslide in the Mandi district of Himachal Pradesh is an example of a deep-seated progressive landslide. The landslide has experienced continuous sliding events since its initiation and become a threat to local community. This research aimed to analyse the evolution of progressive deformation in Kotropi Landslides (Himachal Pradesh) using the 3D limit equilibrium method. This study uses field data of different time intervals, back analysis, and 3-Dimensional numerical modeling to estimate the stability of the Kotropi landslide. Two 3D models were constructed using the field data conducted in two phases: Phase 1 (year 2017–20) and Phase 2 (year 2021–23) to determine the probability of failure in different time period. The stability analysis examines the evaluation of instabilities in the Kotropi landslide for a period of year 2017–20 and year 2021–23, taking into account factors like changes in surface geometry, pore water pressure, ground deformation, and so on. The results obtained were combined with satellite imagery to check the location and direction of progressive failure with in Kotropi landslide. The results indicate that the progressive failures are concentrated in right flank near to the crown area. Contrary to initial failure which occurred in NE-SW direction, the progressive failures are taking place in N-NW direction.