Por la Razón o La Fuerza: What Caused Chile’s Economic Miracle?
摘要
This chapter evaluates the economic and political factors behind the Chilean miracle, focusing on Pinochet’s regime and the transition to democracy. The analysis indicates that Chile’s remarkable economic growth stemmed from a credible commitment to limit government predation continuously reinforced during the democratic administrations. Edwar presents two main findings. First, a positive influence of Pinochet on Chile’s economic miracle is overestimated, as economic growth during his regime performed below that of a synthetic control constructed from similar countries that mirrored Chile’s growth prior to Pinochet. Second, using the same method, Edwar assesses the impact of the transition to democracy on economic growth. The most noticeable divergence in growth begins with the transition to democracy, as Chile is compared with a counterfactual that tracks well the path before the plebiscite in 1988. These results suggest that long-term growth is driven by the implementation of reforms and the expectation that these will remain in place, as evidenced by Chile’s transition to democracy.