Rainfed Agriculture and Climate Change in the Nile Basin
摘要
Rainfed agriculture is the main source of food for most countries, especially Africa and the upper Nile basin. Population explosion, climate change, and soil fertility loss combined have outrun rainfed agriculture capacity to feed a population. Irrigation use of Nile water for agriculture has been associated with Sudan and Egypt downstream in the basin. Upstream countries, including Ethiopia, have mostly managed with rainfed agriculture with insignificant consumptive use withdrawal from the Nile River and its tributaries. Ethiopia, the most populous country in the Nile basin, is affected by droughts and famine which have caused severe food insecurity and human life losses in millions, and consequent dependence on food assistance. This shows the need for irrigation to feed its growing population. Currently, the Eastern Nile is facing increased tensions over the Nile water use triggered by Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD). The dam is under construction and has started filling and power generation. Dam filling and operation plan negotiations between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt so far have become tricky as downstream demand for prescribed release puts obligations on Ethiopia to deliver a predetermined volume of water when unpredictable climate causes decline in flow. The downstream demand for water allocation before water sharing agreement could foreclose Ethiopia from irrigation water withdrawal upstream of the dam. Both Ethiopia and other upstream Nile countries’ growing need for irrigation agriculture is in direct conflict with interests of downstream Sudan and Egypt.