Optimal Design of Cat-in-a-Circle Solutions for Tropical Cyclone Parametric Risk Transfer
摘要
Parametric risk transfer is a form of insurance that pays a pre-established amount based on the occurrence of a physical event with certain measurable characteristics, obviating the need for a prolonged adjustment process. Used in the (re)insurance industry since the 1990s, parametric solutions shine for their transparency, as the coverage is clear and easily understandable by both insurers and insureds. In this paper we focus on one specific design of a tropical cyclone parametric trigger, referred as “cat-in-a-circle”. Among the simplest and most intuitive parametric triggers, cat-in-a-circle designs provide a payout to the insured if the hurricane track intersects with a certain intensity a defined circular geographic area. This paper introduces a general methodology to identify the optimal design (i.e., location of the circle’s center) of cat-in-a-circle solutions for tropical cyclone parametric risk transfer. As an example, the methodology is applied to Jamaica, considering two different locations of exposure, and different tropical cyclone related perils (wind and storm surge). Typically, circles are intuitively centered at the exact location of the asset(s); however, results show that to achieve the best performance in terms of minimum modeled basis risk the center of the circle(s) should rather be slightly offset from the center of exposure.