Scenario Development: Game Theory and Land Administration

The State, fulfilling one of its central functions, faces an important question: how land administration authorities can create value, increase and preserve it, according to the principles of relevance, responsibility, effective planning, and management in conditions of high uncertainty. In this regard, one of the tools for dealing with this problem is scenario planning. The purpose of this article is to adapt game theory to the development of land auction scenarios that take into account the behavioral aspect in the activities of land administration. As a result of the study, four scenarios are presented for the possible developments of the bidding process between the municipality and applicants, taking into account the variability of their behavior. In each scenario, models of municipal behavior at auction have been developed, based on the use of games corresponding to the scenario and aimed at maximizing its benefits. An approach to determining the benefits of bidders is also proposed. The conducted research allows us to conclude that game theory can be adapted to scenario planning of land auctions. It helps to choose the correct scenario and follow it when conducting land auctions in order to maximize municipal income, ensure rational use of land in Russian regions.