Scenario Planning in Third-Order Technical Cybernetics

Concept of a “third order” is inextricably linked to evolution of technical cybernetics systems. In a semiotic context, active development of “third order” systems can be explained by the fact that languages of technical cybernetics systems allow to implement sufficiently powerful semantics for gaming, mathematical, physical, social, etc. models. Scenario planning strategy is intuitive and widely used in control systems, which include automated control systems and artificial intelligence systems. Process of cybernetic systems development is reflected in the concepts of first-order cybernetics (Norbert Wiener) and second-order cybernetics (Heinz von Foerster). Evolution of scientific knowledge has led to development of scientific paradigms: classical, non-classical and post-non-classical. Vyacheslav Stepin's research in the field of scientific rationality allowed Vladimir Lepsky to substantiate the concept of post–nonclassical cybernetics of self-developing polysubject environments - third order cybernetics. Vladimir Lefebvre's approach to construction of a subject self-management reflexive process is used, it involves construction of a polysubjective model of surrounding world and a model of subject in the surrounding world. Implementation of scenario planning method, in this case, leads to implementation of a rather interesting polysubject environment characteristic of third-order cybernetics systems - subject’s “plurality of self”, where subject needs to choose a model of subsequent behavior. Construction of this kind of polysubjective semantics is possible within the framework of systems of third order technical cybernetics. Recursive approach involves considering subject as a “thing in itself”. Negative context of the “thing-in-itself” prevailed in scientific research, however, results obtained by Yuk Hui suggest that there are prerequisites in scientific knowledge for changing negative context of the “thing-in-itself” to a positive one. Positive context of recursive approach, in turn, creates prerequisites for the formation and development of “open semantics” concept in self-developing (evolving) polysubject environments.Third-order technical cybernetics systems semantics makes it possible to implement and explore models of evolutionary processes, whose components are scenario planning processes. Recursive approach within the framework of third-order technical cybernetics allows for implementation of models with open semantics and creates prerequisites for development of the of “meta-cybernetics” concept.