The present study is dedicated to the evaluation of the spatial distribution and the long-term temporal evolution of 5 key ETCCDI precipitation-based climate indices until the end of the present century over Southeast Europe in the climate change context. The indices are computed from the precipitation data of representative AR5 CMIP5 global circulation models and are calculated for all 4 RCP radiative scenarios. The study confirms the complexity of the expected precipitation-related changes. It revealed a general drying tendency toward the end of the 21st century, which is quantified with an increase in CDD and a decrease in PRCPTOT. This tendency, however, is accompanied by steady increases in R95p. The last suggests that dry spells in the region, which are a prerequisite for droughts, will become longer, but that precipitation may be more extreme when it occurs.

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ETCCDI Precipitation-Based Climate Indices in the CMIP5 Future Climate Projections over Southeast Europe

  • Hristo Chervenkov,
  • Kiril Slavov

摘要

The present study is dedicated to the evaluation of the spatial distribution and the long-term temporal evolution of 5 key ETCCDI precipitation-based climate indices until the end of the present century over Southeast Europe in the climate change context. The indices are computed from the precipitation data of representative AR5 CMIP5 global circulation models and are calculated for all 4 RCP radiative scenarios. The study confirms the complexity of the expected precipitation-related changes. It revealed a general drying tendency toward the end of the 21st century, which is quantified with an increase in CDD and a decrease in PRCPTOT. This tendency, however, is accompanied by steady increases in R95p. The last suggests that dry spells in the region, which are a prerequisite for droughts, will become longer, but that precipitation may be more extreme when it occurs.