Scholarlink

This study attempts to determine the relationship between the public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and the rate of real economic growth in the United States using a quadratic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Based on the data from 1960 to 2019, the authors find that further expanding national debt will restrain economic growth after the level of public debt exceeds 64% of GDP. A series of Granger causality tests reveal that the debt-to-GDP ratio Granger causes GDP growth, but indirectly through the interest rate. The results indicate that one way to mitigate the downside of expanding national debt is to meticulously manage interest rate risk.

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Is the Rising Public Debt a Threat to the US Economic Growth? An Empirical Investigation Using ARDL Approach

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

查看全文
  • Yixiao Jiang,
  • George Zestos,
  • Robert Winder,
  • Alex Hamed

摘要

This study attempts to determine the relationship between the public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and the rate of real economic growth in the United States using a quadratic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Based on the data from 1960 to 2019, the authors find that further expanding national debt will restrain economic growth after the level of public debt exceeds 64% of GDP. A series of Granger causality tests reveal that the debt-to-GDP ratio Granger causes GDP growth, but indirectly through the interest rate. The results indicate that one way to mitigate the downside of expanding national debt is to meticulously manage interest rate risk.