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Leakage of water supply pipelines is a common cause of urban road collapse. A database containing 96 pipeline leakage cases in China has been established to study the correlation between pipeline leakage and road collapse. A series of statistical analysis on the distribution pattern and influence factors of road collapse was carried out, and water pipe diameter, pipe buried depth and the surrounding soil category were identified as three key factors affecting the road collapse probability. Then a rapid assessment model for road collapse was established based on the above cases through logistic regression analysis. The model was then applied to zoning the collapse susceptibility of roads in Yangpu District, Shanghai. The results show that the zoning matched well with the spatial distribution of local road collapse cases, indicating the effectiveness of the proposed model.

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A Rapid Model for Assessing Probability of Road Collapse Induced by Leakage of Water Pipelines

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Mingyi Lin,
  • Fang Liu

摘要

Leakage of water supply pipelines is a common cause of urban road collapse. A database containing 96 pipeline leakage cases in China has been established to study the correlation between pipeline leakage and road collapse. A series of statistical analysis on the distribution pattern and influence factors of road collapse was carried out, and water pipe diameter, pipe buried depth and the surrounding soil category were identified as three key factors affecting the road collapse probability. Then a rapid assessment model for road collapse was established based on the above cases through logistic regression analysis. The model was then applied to zoning the collapse susceptibility of roads in Yangpu District, Shanghai. The results show that the zoning matched well with the spatial distribution of local road collapse cases, indicating the effectiveness of the proposed model.