The Impact of Energy-Environmental Constraints on the Marginal Growth of China's Manufacturing Exports–Dynamic Analysis Based on TVP-VAR Modeling

This paper dynamically identifies the time-varying relationships among energy and environmental constraints, manufacturing export intensive margin, and extension margin by constructing the TVP-VAR model. The results indicate that, firstly, the impacts of energy-environmental constraints on manufacturing export intensive and expansion margin have strong time-varying characteristics, and their mechanisms have all undergone structural changes over time. Energy-environmental constraints have a more significant impact on the intensive margin of manufacturing exports than on the expansion margin. Secondly, the effect of energy-environmental constraints on manufacturing export intensive margins is mainly positive, and the long-term effect is relatively more obvious after 2010, but the long-term positive stimulus effect on manufacturing export extension margin is not fully apparent. Thirdly, the growth of manufacturing export intensive margin is not conducive to the growth of manufacturing export extension margin, while the growth of manufacturing export extension margin is conducive to the growth of manufacturing export intensive margin.