Do Early Signals Count? Exploring Potential Root Causes of University Dropout

This study examines the factors leading to student attrition in Romanian higher education, providing valuable insights that are applicable to other countries. The predictability of student dropout can be determined by assessing the extent to which student satisfaction with teaching and learning, academic and social infrastructure, outcomes, and support services are met. Moreover, this paper investigates the impact of pre-entry characteristics, specifically focusing on the final upper secondary school exam results (Baccalaureate), which emerge as the most robust indicator of undergraduate dropout rates. In contrast, other social characteristics do not exhibit a comparable level of significance in this regard. It also underlines a shift towards greater value of academic and social infrastructure to support students in relation to teaching efficacy, as the sense of community is a critical factor in retaining students. Timely detection of learners who are considering dropping out is crucial, as it can result in decreased rates of student attrition. In order to address this, customised strategies that take into account the contextual factors (including pre-university characteristics) and mechanisms through which students can articulate their feelings on their educational curriculum and academic journey could be developed. The consideration of their perceived challenges is crucial, given that peer learning has been identified as a significant factor contributing to student attrition among undergraduate students. The study provides more information regarding the student experience during the COVID-19 epidemic, as it reveals, for instance, that 40% of students who contemplated leaving university owing to the pandemic did so, mitigating some of the factors for this situation. This work also makes a valuable contribution to the wider theoretical debate around student dropout by investigating the potential interactions and distinct influences of several factors on student paths. The data utilised in this study was obtained from the National Student Survey in Romania (NSSS-RO) and EUROSTUDENT VII, including the period from autumn 2020 to spring 2021. Additionally, administrative data from the National Student Enrolment Registry (RMUR) was also incorporated.