Digital Foresight Tools for Anticipatory Governance in Africa: Case of Predictive Modelling Tool in Trade (SCI-TRADE)

Anticipatory governance has emerged as a proactive approach to policy formulation and decision-making in an era of rapid technological advancements and intricate societal challenges. This chapter examines the use of a cutting-edge digital foresight tool in Africa to improve governance processes and decision-making in the trade sector. The chapter focuses on the Product Opportunity Index, a predictive modelling tool created through collaborative efforts by the Co-creation Hub Research Team. This tool forecasts national trade performance for several commodities and identifies potential opportunities. It was specifically developed to take advantage of the potential benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), a strategic move that underscores the tool’s forward-thinking nature. The index considers various factors, such as social interconnectedness and the convergence of export-import commodities for individual countries within Africa. It serves the purpose of identifying and providing recommendations on the optimal countries for a specific African nation to export particular commodities in accordance with the trading terms established by the AfCFTA. This chapter conducts an in-depth analysis of the tool’s functionality and efficacy, exploring its potential as a tool for governments to make anticipatory decisions regarding trade opportunities. This chapter makes a valuable contribution to the current body of knowledge on anticipatory governance in Africa that can be utilised by policymakers, government agencies, and other stakeholders who are engaged in decision-making processes across different sectors.