Formal Models, Causal Inference, and American Political Development

I explore the interconnections between formal models, causal inference, and American political development. I focus on formal models based on game theory and argue that, despite many years of mutual critique, game-theoretic models and APD share important methodological and substantive overlap. As a result, they have no inherent antagonism and, in some ways, can be mutually beneficial. For causal inference in APD, I argue that formal models are useful for two reasons: first to depict generative causal mechanisms that can explain the causal effects identified with standard empirical techniques; second, to show connections between packages of variables and lend credibility to causal arguments when strong identification is not otherwise possible. I examine these claims in light of examples from the literature.