Navigating Criminal Dynamics: Effects of COVID-19 on Tourism in Minas Gerais

The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated social distancing measures on Minas Gerais’ society instigated a thorough examination of crime rates across its 853 municipalities. With a specific focus on tourist-centric areas and rooted in routine activities theory, the study posits that the decrease in street-level activities, stemming from reduced human presence, brings about shifts in criminal behavior dynamics. Analyzing police records from all municipalities, paired Student T-tests were employed to scrutinize changes pre- and post-isolation, both within and independently across municipalities, including tourism-centric cities of similar populations. The study spans the pre-pandemic (Jan/2018 to Mar/2020) and subsequent (Mar/2020 to Apr/2021) periods, incorporating an ARIMA model and Chow Test to pinpoint structural breaks in Mar/2020. The findings unveil noteworthy alterations in crime records across selected categories in Minas Gerais during the pandemic. Specifically, the study focuses on property crimes such as theft, theft from passers-by, and theft and robbery of vehicles. Interestingly, tourism-oriented destinations did not display statistically significant differences in crime rates compared to other areas. This study sheds light on the intricate interplay between the COVID-19 pandemic, societal responses, and crime dynamics, particularly within regions heavily reliant on tourism.