Integration of a Kinematic Seismic Early Warning System to BG-Alert—Possibilities and Difficulties
摘要
BG-Alert is a new established warning system to warn the people and administrative bodies about natural and man-made hazards with high destructive potential in real or near real time domain. The floods, heavy rains, hails, fires (both – domestic and/or forest, or bush), industrial accidents, chemical and/or radioactive pollution, etc. are the number of disasters for which BG-Alert must warn and issue short instructions about the behavior of population. The introduction of BG-Alert system in operation shows several cases of missfunction or malfunction. The alerts are not issued at all or emitted too late with a confusing information about the methods of evacuation, etc. There are also some disaters not included in BG-Alert operation such earthquakes or other more difficult to predict disasters. The aim of this paper is to explain a possible integration of a seismic warning system for population as well as to mitigate the effects of destructive seismic events. The global approach to seismic warnings has two main branches – the dynamic models, based on the fast determination of the parameters of a strong earthquake (coordinates, depth, magnitude) after an event occurred and the kinematic models. For the last, only kinematic properties of the seismic waves are used – time, velocity, propagation ray from source to the warned site. Usually the kinematic models follow the information of the time propagation of the primary and secondary seismic waves detected by a dense network of seismometers. The difference of the arrival times of both types of waves is crucial for the effectiveness of such systems.