Deterministic Risk Assessment for the City of Veliko Tarnovo
摘要
Among natural disasters, earthquakes dominate regarding their social and economic effects on human life and the urban environment. One of the main objectives of the present study is to integrate the basic geo-datasets and to assess the seismic hazard using GIS to provide a basis for disaster management of the city of Veliko Tarnovo—the most Bulgarian city that in 2019 was declared the historical and spiritual capital of Bulgaria. Risk assessment and its associated management are the most effective approach to estimate the impact of natural hazards on the city of Veliko Tarnovo that is situated in an area that exhibits high seismic activity. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first step of seismic risk evaluation. The appropriate risk reduction strategies can be developed only with a better understanding of seismic hazard. The assessment of the strong earthquakes consequences is based on procedures for integration of seismic hazard and seismic vulnerability of the bearing structures of the building stock. Based on the collected information for the building stock and the analysis carried out, the assessment of direct damage and destruction is obtained. Earthquake scenarios and risk assessment are powerful tools to support disaster management decisions. The consideration of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on the activities following the disasters.