Effects of Climate Change on the Quality-of-Life Assessment Model in Alexandria, Egypt

In the era of escalating climate anomalies, the mapping of hazards, particularly for heatwaves, emerges as a crucial tool in our global resilience toolkit. Current research trends highlight a predominant focus on key areas worldwide. However, this emphasis often leans towards regions with well-established infrastructures and robust adaptive capacities to counteract climate change impacts. In stark contrast, the Middle East, and North Africa (MENA) region frequently find themselves overlooked despite their marked vulnerability. This area often lacks the necessary preparation and adaptive capacity to adequately respond to the escalating impacts of heatwaves. The threats posed by these heatwaves extend beyond mere discomfort, with potential ramifications including severe drought, escalating health risks, and significant economic consequences. The study aims to present a comprehensive, multi-risk framework for assessing potential heatwave hazards under climate change scenarios and their impact on the quality of life in coastal cities. To achieve this, we analyzed the downscaled daily maximum near-surface air temperature data retrieved from the NASA-Earth-Exchange-Global-Daily-Downscaled-Projections (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 dataset for two Socio-economic-Pathways (SSPs) within an ensemble-based assessment derived from thirteen diverse global-climate-models (GCMs). The heatwave characteristics within two distinct periods: a reference time frame from 1950 to 2014 and an assessment timeframe from 2015 to 2100 are analyzed. The percentage change in the heatwave characteristics is incorporated in the Quality of Life model for Alexandria. The results provide invaluable insights for decision-makers and policy planners, offering a foundation for addressing the escalating hazards of heatwaves on the quality of life in Alexandria and engaging in effective mitigation planning.