Modeling the Development Scenarios for Ukraine in the Context of the EU Circular Economy, Using Fuzzy Set Theory

One of the main problems of modern development is the production’s negative impact from the economic activity on the environment. The Scientific Advisory Council of the European Academies is largely focused on solving this problem. At the same time, a key point in the proposed solutions is the need to reassess economic activity based on the circular economy model. Such a model of the economy will ensure optimal use of material flows and will significantly reduce waste. The transition to the principles of circular economy will in turn help to reduce its destructive impact on the environment. According to statistical data, a hierarchical information model was built within the defined criteria for evaluating the development of the circular economy of European countries, a system of intermediate and main composite indicators was identified based on the system of inputs, which makes it possible to comprehensively assess the level of performance of the tasks defined in the framework of the model for the development of the key principles of the circular economy. In the context of the defined system of composite indicators, the entire studied set of European Union countries was clustered using the method of fuzzy k-means. For each country indicator, the metrics of these indicators are calculated using Mamdani fuzzy inference models. This made it possible to build rating series in the context of a defined set of composite indicators. At the final stage, a simulation model is presented, the basis of which is the knowledge, presented as fuzzy output controllers. Such a simulation model makes it possible to consider different scenarios for achieving the target tasks, defined as part of the implementation of the Circular Economy principles for each country. The important role here plays post-war reconstruction based on principles of Circular Economy to attract investors, and tourists and boost sustainable economic development.