Estimation of the Economic and Social Impact of a Museum Activity, a Case Study: The Tavolara Pavillon in Sassari

This paper outlines a comprehensive approach to evaluating the economic and social impact of museum activities, with a particular focus on the Tavolara Pavilion in Sassari, the future regional museum for Design and Handicrafts. To assess the impact on induced productive activities, the paper proposes using a regional Input-Output Table (IOT) tailored to the local territorial context. This tool allows the measurement of the effects of demand shocks, such as increased tourist spending, and identifies production constraints that may hinder the deployment of demand effects. Furthermore, the paper introduces the Theory of Change (ToC) as a tool to measure the cultural growth of a community. This approach involves outlining hypotheses underlying causal mechanisms governing change, defining scenarios, and verifying the change path with various stakeholders. The integration of the two approaches is emphasized, where the ToC focuses on the “micro” effects of cultural change on individuals or communities, while the IOT-based analysis has a “macro” reference, offering insights at the level of productive sectors. The combination of these approaches allows for a thorough investigation into various dimensions of museum activity. This integrated approach proves valuable in an ex-ante perspective for strategy definition, ongoing monitoring for reprogramming and adjusting interventions, and finally, for an ex-post evaluation with accountability purposes related to socio-economic-environmental impacts.