Coastal Futures Reimagined: Personalizing Scenarios in Agent-Based Resilience Models

This paper introduces custom climate change scenarios as part of a larger ongoing research project aimed at developing an agent-based model (ABM) to assess urban resilience against coastal flooding. It emphasizes the necessity of personalized scenarios in agent-based modeling, particularly in environmental studies and urban planning, to provide context-specific insights crucial for effective decision-making and policy development. In this context, Greek-specific scenarios (GR-RCPxSSP) are fashioned, bridging global climate research with localized realities and acknowledging Greece's unique socio-economic, geopolitical, and environmental attributes. This paper showcases how these tailored scenarios not only aid in predicting the impacts of interventions or environmental changes but also facilitate stakeholder engagement and realistic expectations. They offer a spectrum of possible futures, from optimistic to dystopian outcomes, enhancing the utility of models in policy-making. The diversity and relevance of these scenarios underline their importance as educational tools and in promoting interdisciplinary collaboration. As this research progresses, these scenarios will be further refined and integrated with additional data, enriching our understanding of urban resilience and adaptation strategies. This work represents a critical contribution to urban resilience planning and climate change adaptation, highlighting the potential for future discoveries and innovations in the field.