Extreme Events in a Changing Climate: The Performance of Meteorological Forecasting Models During the Medicane Zorba

The present paper investigates the performance of numerical model forecasting systems while predicting wave and wind patterns during extreme weather events in the Mediterranean region, focusing on the occurrence of unique phenomena such as Mediterranean hurricanes (Medicanes). In particular, the evaluation encompasses two key meteorological parameters, wind speed and significant wave height, during the onset and development of the Medicane Zorba which occurred between 27 and 29 September 2018 in the Ionian Sea. By comparing model forecasts with satellite observations and in-situ buoys measurement, the study aims to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of the forecasting systems in capturing the complex dynamics associated with this extreme event.