Over the past decade, global changes in temperature, average and extreme precipitation have been observed on numerous occasions (Frich et al. Climate Research 19:193–212, 2002; Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., & Vazquez‐Aguirre, J. L. (2006). Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 111(D5); Min et al. Nature 470:378–381, 2011). Increasing temperatures, and even changes in precipitation systems, have a direct impact on extreme weather events (Zhao et al. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 156:519–524, 2009; Hallouz et al. Revue des Sciences De L’eau 26:33–38, 2013). For example, heatwaves, heavy precipitation, storms, and droughts are more frequent than ever and more powerful worldwide as a result of climate change and several factors, including human activity. The aim of this paper is to assess projected changes in extremes of thermal and rainfall on the horizon from 2041 to 2060, compared with the baseline period 1981–2010, and based on three climate indicators, including Tmm, PRCPTOT, and SPI, via the RCP 4.5 medium scenario. For this, daily data from the four models GFDL, INM, MPI, and MIROC of the three weather parameters, maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation, were used. By 2041–2060, Morocco could experience significant warming, manifested by an increase in global average temperature. All four climate models agree on a decrease in annual precipitation, which could affect most of the Kingdom. As for drought, future changes in the drought index (SPI) indicate an evolution towards a dry climate.

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Projected Changes of Thermal, Rainfall, and Drought Indices in Morocco Using the Climate Models with High Resolution

  • Hammoudy Wahib,
  • Ilmen Rachid,
  • Sinan Mohamed

摘要

Over the past decade, global changes in temperature, average and extreme precipitation have been observed on numerous occasions (Frich et al. Climate Research 19:193–212, 2002; Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., & Vazquez‐Aguirre, J. L. (2006). Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 111(D5); Min et al. Nature 470:378–381, 2011). Increasing temperatures, and even changes in precipitation systems, have a direct impact on extreme weather events (Zhao et al. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 156:519–524, 2009; Hallouz et al. Revue des Sciences De L’eau 26:33–38, 2013). For example, heatwaves, heavy precipitation, storms, and droughts are more frequent than ever and more powerful worldwide as a result of climate change and several factors, including human activity. The aim of this paper is to assess projected changes in extremes of thermal and rainfall on the horizon from 2041 to 2060, compared with the baseline period 1981–2010, and based on three climate indicators, including Tmm, PRCPTOT, and SPI, via the RCP 4.5 medium scenario. For this, daily data from the four models GFDL, INM, MPI, and MIROC of the three weather parameters, maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation, were used. By 2041–2060, Morocco could experience significant warming, manifested by an increase in global average temperature. All four climate models agree on a decrease in annual precipitation, which could affect most of the Kingdom. As for drought, future changes in the drought index (SPI) indicate an evolution towards a dry climate.