A Random Variational Inequality Model of an International Agricultural Supply Chain with a Vulnerability Analysis Under Disaster Scenarios

We further develop a very recent network equilibrium model of international agricultural trade with capacity constraints on production and routes. Our contribution is twofold: at first, we treat the exchange rates as random variables, and frame the model within the theory of random variational inequalities; in the second place, we use the mean value of the equilibrium solution to perform a vulnerability analysis of the routes, aimed at identifying the set of routes whose disruption would mostly affect the overall international trade. Finally, some numerical experiments are shown.