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The worldwide impact of COVID-19 necessitates accurate forecasting for informed decision-making by governments and health entities. This study proposes neural network architectures for time series forecasting of confirmed COVID-19 cases based on historical data. The models, including variants of LSTM networks, CNN-GRU hybrids, RBMs, DBNs, and self-attention mechanisms, are trained on comprehensive datasets of confirmed cases, deaths, recoveries, and other variables across various countries. Comparative analysis indicates that CNN-GRU and LSTM models exhibit superior performance in forecasting accuracy, surpassing RBM, DBN, and self-attention models across metrics like Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. This research emphasizes the viability of employing advanced neural networks for precise COVID-19 spread predictions, pivotal in shaping public health policies during global crises.

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Time Series Forecasting for COVID-19 Confirmed Cases Using Transformer Based Stacked LSTM Model

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Sri Naga Jathin Penumadi,
  • Vaishakh Nambiar,
  • G. S. Vignesh,
  • Rimjhim Padam Singh,
  • Sneha Kanchan

摘要

The worldwide impact of COVID-19 necessitates accurate forecasting for informed decision-making by governments and health entities. This study proposes neural network architectures for time series forecasting of confirmed COVID-19 cases based on historical data. The models, including variants of LSTM networks, CNN-GRU hybrids, RBMs, DBNs, and self-attention mechanisms, are trained on comprehensive datasets of confirmed cases, deaths, recoveries, and other variables across various countries. Comparative analysis indicates that CNN-GRU and LSTM models exhibit superior performance in forecasting accuracy, surpassing RBM, DBN, and self-attention models across metrics like Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. This research emphasizes the viability of employing advanced neural networks for precise COVID-19 spread predictions, pivotal in shaping public health policies during global crises.