The Demography of Conservative and Liberal Populism in the US
摘要
The political challenge the Republican Party faced during the Obama years was how to remain an essentially white, conservative party in an increasingly racially and ethnically diverse country. In the wake of Romney’s defeat in 2012, the Republican Party had to confront the fact that because with the white share of the vote was declining, the Party either had to become more inclusive or react against the trends that could potentially consign them to permanent minority status. Trump demonstrated in 2016 that Republicans could defy demographic destiny by utilizing an Electoral College strategy aimed at peeling off non-college educated whites who had previously supported the Democrats and being a spokesperson for the grievances of those who felt they were losing socially, economically and politically. That strategy failed in 2020 when Trump lost to Joe Biden and then again is 2022 when the Republicans lost a several seats for Congress when it fielded candidates who echoed Trump’s MAGA themes. It seemed like Trump’s hold on the Republican Party should weaken amid numerous law suits and his role in the January 6th attack on the Capitol; but once again Trump defied the odds and emerged from his legal and political troubles to secure a third Presidential nomination and ultimately a victory in both the popular and Electoral College vote in 2024. Is this a story about the man or the party? The answer seems to be both.