IDEAL: The ‘Infectious Disease Transmission Climatic Suitability Index’

Over the last century, Europe has evolved significantly in terms of public health, due to, for instance, improvements in the birth process and life expectancy. In fact, the best healthcare systems in the world are found in European countries. However, successive predicaments have impacted human health and quality of life, from wars and energy crises to pandemics and environmental degradation. In particular, with a higher increase in the average surface air temperature than its global peer, one of the world’s largest contributors to global cumulative greenhouse gas emissions has been facing climatic conditions that are becoming increasingly suitable for the emergence and transmission of climate-sensitive infectious diseases. With malaria, Zika, and dengue, among several others, re-emerging in the region, it is crucial to provide a unified measure of the climatic suitability of each European country for the transmission of such infectious diseases. Therefore, we propose the ‘Infectious DisEase trAnsmission CLimatic Suitability Index’ (IDEAL). Using the popular ‘Benefit-of-the-Doubt’ approach, we build this composite indicator by aggregating the multidimensional subject of climatic suitability for the transmission of infectious diseases into an assessment with relevance for European climate and public health policymaking. In the end, the IDEAL reveals that European countries are quite susceptible to the transmission of climate-sensitive diseases, with only Denmark, Finland, Iceland, and Ireland arising as exceptions and that the Average temperature does, indeed, influence the IDEAL. Finally, the Climatic suitability for the transmission of dengue by Aedes albopictus in Europe emerges as the indicator in which European countries exhibit the most worrying performances.