Lessons from the Great Gramalote: Colombia Landslide (2010) and its Relocation Process
摘要
Colombia is located in a tropical zone periodically affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which in the wet phase is called La Niña, characterized by rain values over the historical average. The last important La Niña event occurred in 2010–2011 and produced generalized floods and many landslides around the country, with important human and material losses. One of the most significant landslides triggered in this period was the Gramalote landslide, which destroyed a town of 3000 people, located in the northeast of the country and made it necessary to evacuate all the population and construct a new village 3.5 km north of the affected site. This article presents a general framework of the 2010–2011 La Niña effects in Colombia as a main cause of the Gramalote Landslide, the description of the instability problem, considering the stages previous, during, and after the landslide, as well as a back data vulnerability analysis and a review regarding the relocation process and its results after more than 13 years of the landslide occurrence. Important lessons can be learned about this complex risk management process, as a) the geological and geotechnical conditions in which the landslide occurred and the identification of the main triggering factors, b) the necessity of confident technical information about the local risk condition that takes into account extreme climate events c) the importance of such information being known and understood by local authorities and the population, d) the difficulties that arise under massive evacuation when a detailed emergency plan is not available (no one expected that there would be a landslide of the magnitude that occurred, much less that they would have to permanently evacuate all the homes), e) the complexities associated to the selection of a new site for relocation, considering not only technical aspects but social, economic, cultural and political elements that play a relevant role in the governance and success of the process, f) the back analysis of the structural vulnerability showed similar results as observed in place, but human susceptibility was much lower than the estimated on the model, and g) the positive and negative aspects of a big and long-time relocation project that may be of interest for similar cases, considering that the frequency and magnitude of future events due to climate change may produce large population migrations and the necessity to find new places to relocate these people.