This chapter examines the complex relationship between digitalization and crime trends through a comprehensive literature review, developing a conjecture about how digital transformation has influenced criminal behavior since the 1990s. The authors challenge existing narratives by arguing that digitalization’s impact on crime operates primarily through changes in routine activities and lifestyle patterns, particularly among young people, rather than through direct technological effects. The chapter identifies and addresses three key misunderstandings in previous research: the conflation of cybercrime with digitalization effects, temporal inconsistencies in trend analysis, and oversimplified cause-and-effect relationships. Drawing on routine activity theory and recent research on youth crime trends across multiple countries, the authors propose that digitalization’s primary impact on crime operates through its reduction of unstructured socialization among young people, who increasingly spend time at home engaged in digital activities rather than in potentially criminogenic public spaces. This mechanism helps explain the pronounced decline in youth crime observed across many Western countries since the 1990s. The chapter synthesizes evidence from studies on various aspects of youth behavior, including alcohol consumption, social interaction patterns, and criminal activity, to support this conjecture. The authors argue that while digitalization may not be the sole cause of crime reduction, its role as a significant contributing factor has been systematically underappreciated in criminological research. The chapter concludes by calling for more nuanced research examining the specific mechanisms through which technological change affects criminal opportunities and behavior patterns, particularly among young people.

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Digitalization, Social Change, and Crime Trends: A Literature Review to Build a Conjecture

  • Fernando Miró-Llinares,
  • Marcelo F. Aebi

摘要

This chapter examines the complex relationship between digitalization and crime trends through a comprehensive literature review, developing a conjecture about how digital transformation has influenced criminal behavior since the 1990s. The authors challenge existing narratives by arguing that digitalization’s impact on crime operates primarily through changes in routine activities and lifestyle patterns, particularly among young people, rather than through direct technological effects. The chapter identifies and addresses three key misunderstandings in previous research: the conflation of cybercrime with digitalization effects, temporal inconsistencies in trend analysis, and oversimplified cause-and-effect relationships. Drawing on routine activity theory and recent research on youth crime trends across multiple countries, the authors propose that digitalization’s primary impact on crime operates through its reduction of unstructured socialization among young people, who increasingly spend time at home engaged in digital activities rather than in potentially criminogenic public spaces. This mechanism helps explain the pronounced decline in youth crime observed across many Western countries since the 1990s. The chapter synthesizes evidence from studies on various aspects of youth behavior, including alcohol consumption, social interaction patterns, and criminal activity, to support this conjecture. The authors argue that while digitalization may not be the sole cause of crime reduction, its role as a significant contributing factor has been systematically underappreciated in criminological research. The chapter concludes by calling for more nuanced research examining the specific mechanisms through which technological change affects criminal opportunities and behavior patterns, particularly among young people.