Landscape Change

Perhaps the most fundamental observations of landscapes are changes in land cover or condition over time. The initial task, given such observations, is to determine whether the observed changes are real—an issue of extracting an ecological signal from the background noise. In this chapter we begin with trend detection and then proceed to capture trends in simple models that can be extrapolated into the future. Simple models are often too simple to be satisfyingly realistic, but they provide a useful point of departure for models that are too realistic to be simple. Considering a variety of simple and less simple models of landscape change leads to a more general consideration of the modeling process (and our role in this). While appreciating that most practitioners will not aspire to be modelers, most landscape-scale applications involve models of some kind. This chapter aims to instill an appreciation of the modeling process and workflow and the role of models in landscape ecology and management.