Assessment Dynamics Risks Infrastructural Genesis at Critical Information Infrastructure Facilities

The article describes the effect of infrastructural destructivism, which consists in the self-destruction of the system without direct destructive effects. Infrastructural destructivism occurs under certain conditions, several simultaneous destructive impacts on objects of critical information infrastructure (CII). Infrastructural destructivism can lead both to minimizing the risks of infrastructural genesis, and to catastrophic changes leading to the complete destruction of its infrastructure. Based on the anthropomorphic model of object interaction, an epidemiological model for assessing the risks of the dynamics of inter-project influence in the context of infrastructural destructivism has been developed. The following epidemiological models are considered: SI model, SIR model, SEIR model, PSIDR model. The SEIR model proved to be the most adequate model for this task. The developed software tool has shown that the system, regardless of the architecture, copes with a large number of destructive influences on its own. Thus, when calculating the performance of an IC, you can limit yourself to 5 simultaneous ones. Thus, when applying the proposed approach, it becomes possible to increase the accuracy of risk assessment of infrastructural genesis and increase the safety of CII subjects.