Evaluating Drought Severity and Trends in Northeast Algeria: A Comprehensive Analysis Using the Standardized Precipitation Drought Index (ISSP)
摘要
This study aims to assess the trends, severity and areas most at risk from drought on northeastern of Algeria, to predict future droughts in light of climate change. To achieve this goal, this study examined drought periods in Annaba, Batna, Bejaia, Constantine, Skikda, and Jijel, using historical rainfall data over a forty-year period (1981–2021). The analysis employed the Standardised Rainfall Drought Index (ISSP) and advanced climate models, utilizing statistical methods such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (ISSP). As results, the ISSP effectively captures the duration and intensity of rainfall droughts. Moreover, statistical analysis of the rainfall data indicates spatial and temporal variations of wet and dry years in the north-eastern Algeria region. The measurement series, from 1981 to 2021, presents successive periods of moderate to severe drought. Notably, the two last decades (2000s, and 2020s) have been most affected by the annual deficits of rainfall, likely due to climate change.