Application of Cognitive Modeling for Qualitative Analysis of Educational Projects’ Risks in Higher Education Institutions

The article studies the modeling of risk management in educational projects of higher education institutions. Today fuzzy cognitive models are widely used for the analysis of complex, causal systems from the standpoint of classification, analysis, modeling, forecasting, decision-making, etc. the authors, however, suggest the application of a cognitive model for risks analysis of an educational project in the field of higher education. The model is suggested to be implemented within the framework of a qualitative analysis of factors influencing each other, the strength of their interaction, and graphical construction of a model with a display of cause-and-effect relationships in a variable weakly structured system for making optimal management decisions. Modeling visualization is a powerful tool, which allows demonstrate the results of expert assessments with subsequent development of a strategy to prevent risks’ occurrence. This approach to modeling allows to understand not only the current state of the system, but also to reproduce various scenarios of its development, which helps to determine the optimal ways for further development. In general, the use of fuzzy cognitive maps of risk management allows to make the process more systematic, effective and oriented towards achieving project success.