Climate Change on Brier Island: Prospects for Long-Term Survival of Geum Peckii

The endangered plant Geum peckii has found refuge on Brier Island, but is likely being put in peril by significant climate change. We evaluated climate change since the 1960s in the context of regional atmospheric and oceanic influences. On the outer southern edge of the Bay of Fundy, Brier Island sits in an ocean hotspot that has warmed at least 2 °C since the 1990s. This 2 °C rise in ocean temperature is reflected in the elevated mean air temperature of 1.9 °C on Brier Island in the same period. This change was double the change of 1 °C over the last 60 years at the nearby sites of Grand Manan, on the north side of the Bay of Fundy, and Yarmouth near the southwestern extreme of mainland Nova Scotia. Temperature changes are presented along with an analysis of precipitation and wind. The underlying causes of these changes can be attributed to both local and global climatic influences, especially in light of ocean warming. These results suggest a changing climate regime for G. peckii, in which higher temperatures may be decreasing its competitive abilities through the more vigorous growth of shrubs in its primary microhabitats on Brier Island. These climate changes, in addition to changes in hydrology and eutrophication of its primary habitat in the Big Meadow Bog, add further risk to the long-term survival of G. peckii on Brier Island.