This chapter reviews the evidence for the potential impact of climate change on crop production and food security in South Africa, a key food producer in Southern Africa. Despite the importance of this topic, no comprehensive review has been conducted in South Africa. Here we review the studies using process-based crop models, the Ricardian economic model, and statistical models to analyze the impact of climate change in South Africa and proposed adaptation responses. Together, these models predict climate change will severely impact crop production, projecting decreased yields for major crops, such as maize and wheat. There remains, however, some debate on the benefits of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration for C3 crops and how limited water and elevated temperatures might negate these benefits. Climate change will reduce the amount of arable land in South Africa, presenting significant challenges for food production, employment, rural-urban migration, and land reform policies. Integrated multidisciplinary approaches are needed to address these challenges, drawing on humanities, economics, and STEM expertise. This study provides vital insights into the substantial risks posed by climate change to food security in Southern Africa, which can help inform policymakers and guide their efforts to protect and sustain food security in the face of these challenges.

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The Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production and Food Security: A South African Perspective

  • Robert Mangani,
  • Emma Archer,
  • Christien Engelbrecht,
  • Gianni Bellocchi,
  • Alex Mukiibi,
  • Nicky M. Creux

摘要

This chapter reviews the evidence for the potential impact of climate change on crop production and food security in South Africa, a key food producer in Southern Africa. Despite the importance of this topic, no comprehensive review has been conducted in South Africa. Here we review the studies using process-based crop models, the Ricardian economic model, and statistical models to analyze the impact of climate change in South Africa and proposed adaptation responses. Together, these models predict climate change will severely impact crop production, projecting decreased yields for major crops, such as maize and wheat. There remains, however, some debate on the benefits of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration for C3 crops and how limited water and elevated temperatures might negate these benefits. Climate change will reduce the amount of arable land in South Africa, presenting significant challenges for food production, employment, rural-urban migration, and land reform policies. Integrated multidisciplinary approaches are needed to address these challenges, drawing on humanities, economics, and STEM expertise. This study provides vital insights into the substantial risks posed by climate change to food security in Southern Africa, which can help inform policymakers and guide their efforts to protect and sustain food security in the face of these challenges.