Vietnam’s Policy Towards the South China Sea and the Development of China-Vietnam Relations

Vietnam is currently carrying out reclamation and island-building projects in the Spratly Islands. Vietnam’s move appears to be an attempt to counter China’s strong behavior in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. This latest stance is the result of a combination of factors, such as the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, the deepening of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, and China’s strengthened position in the South China Sea. Vietnam’s recent moves in the South China Sea are essentially a miscalculation of the situation, an attempt to take advantage of the intensifying Sino-US rivalry to expand the scope of oil and gas exploration in preparation for the conclusion of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) in Vietnam’s favor. Vietnam’s overall strategy in the South China Sea is to fight for “sovereignty” while maintaining peace with China. Constrained by internal power distribution issues, Vietnam will not break the basic framework of maintaining peace with China. In addition, from a strategic height to deal with Sino-Vietnamese relations the leaders of the two countries have long existed in a high degree of consensus. Therefore, although the occurrence of small twists and turns in the South China Sea soon can not be ruled out, the situation in the South China Sea and Sino-Vietnamese relations in general will remain stable, and there is no danger of a major crisis eruption.