System Approach to Predictive Evaluation of Underground Objects Using Modified Morphological Analysis Method

The issue of predictive evaluation of underground objects in a variable geological environment is considered as a multi-factor, weakly structured system. The tool kit for risk analysis of underground construction sites was decided to be based on the modified morphological analysis method, which proved to be highly efficient for modeling problems that deal with objects having a vast multitude of alternative configurations produced by combinations of different parameter values. It allows to consider a number of decisions and risk groups regarding the advisability of urban underground development on chosen sites, relying on the selected groups of geological and technogenic factors. The applied technique allows to assess various risk types, the probability of negative scenarios and related additional expenses as early as the pre-project stage of underground objects construction. This gives the investors a valuable tool for risk and investment management in subsurface development and mastering underground space. The designed morphological model was tested on two construction sites for underground multifunctional complexes in Kyiv city. The results were analyzed, presented in the form of graphs and charts, and demonstrate the sufficient adequacy and clearness of the model under conditions of absent precise, distinct and credible information.