Forecasting Hydrocarbon Production Based on the Time Models of the Natural Gas Field Life Cycle

An optimization model for predicting hydrocarbon production under conditions of uncertain information on the prospects for the development of natural gas and oil resources and reserves is proposed. The model is based on the representation of options for the development of existing fields by approximating the volume of potential annual production from the measures and technologies to improve the efficiency of gas recovery, as well as statistical information on the distribution of new fields by reserves and depths with the corresponding costs of field development. In order to take into account the characteristic patterns of exploitation of natural gas and oil fields in the tasks of forecasting the development of the relevant sectors of the country’s economy, the article proposes approximation time dependencies of the volume of hydrocarbon field production during a limited period of its development. A method of using sets of binary variables to represent non-smooth and nonlinear dependencies of the volume of hydrocarbon resource extraction on time during the periods of field development is presented. The basics of an optimization approach to the problem of forecasting the development of the oil and gas industry are proposed to substantiate the feasible timing of commissioning new natural gas and oil fields, taking into account the possibilities of intensifying the production of existing fields. In the context of solving applied planning problems, the optimization model for forecasting hydrocarbon production can be considered as a methodological tool for developing programs for the development of oil and gas production in the country. The article presents the results of calculations of the forecasted volumes of natural gas production obtained using the developed software and information model. The implemented nonlinear optimization algorithms made it possible to formulate a forecast of natural gas production in Ukraine for the period up to 2040, taking into account the types of natural gas deposits available in the country and assessments of the possibilities of their development over time.