Forecasting the Technological Development of the Coal Industry

The purpose of the study is to develop mathematical models and tools for optimizing the technological development of coal mining based on the use of energy and economic indicators of the effectiveness of the introduction of advanced technologies. A mathematical model for the optimization of the technological development of coal mining has been created, which, in contrast to the well-known industry-wide balance optimization models, is aimed at increasing the production efficiency of the selected subsystems of the industry by the criterion of their overall productivity. The model, constructed as a problem of mixed-integer programming, made it possible to determine the optimal set of options for the technical re-equipment of mines that would ensure the industry’s competitiveness in the world coal market. A new method has been developed for the formation of a multitude of promising options for technological re-equipment of mines, which, with the help of comparing the numerical values of integrated quality criteria, makes a decision to choose options for equipping mines with high-performance mining equipment that best meets the geological and geological conditions with maximum efficiency and reliability of its operation. Unlike the existing approaches to justifying the choice of types of mining equipment, the proposed method uses in the integral quality criteria not only indicators of compliance with the mining and geological conditions of specific mines, but also predicted ash content of extracted coal, indicators of energy and economic efficiency of its operation. Calculations of the optimal option for the re-equipment of the coal industry have proved the possibility of finding promising state mines at the level of profitability through the introduction of efficient coal mining technologies. This will make it possible to double the volume of coal production and, on this basis, to achieve the industry’s competitiveness. The developed model and software tools for optimizing the technological development of the coal industry are intended to select the optimal options for the modernization of mines in forecasting the development directions of the coal industry.