Optimization of Technological Development of the Oil and Gas Industry

Solving the problem of improving the efficiency of the fuel sectors of Ukraine’s economy and ensuring their further development requires a radical technological upgrade of production, modernization of equipment of a new technical level and renovation of extractive and processing enterprises. Solving the problem of forecasting the development of fuel industries involves building a formal representation of the time dependence of the productivity of an extractive enterprise over its life cycle. In the context of developing methods and software tools for predicting the development of the oil and gas industries, a mathematical model was proposed that takes into account the dependence of hydrocarbon production on time over a limited period of field development. This model uses binary variables to determine the critical points of this dependence, which allows solving the problems of optimal planning of oil and gas field discovery and development. The author also developed a model for optimizing the development of the extractive industry using the cost criterion, which helps to determine the most appropriate time for commissioning fields, taking into account the indicators of dependence of production on time. The article presents the results of test calculations for three types of new fields, where the development corresponds to the estimated production volumes at different stages of the industry development forecasting period. Using a model with a cost criterion, the author has built a model based on the principles of L.V. Kantorovich and differs from existing models in that it takes into account the production volumes in the assortment vector associated with the volumes of “production” of recoverable hydrocarbon reserves. The increase in these reserves is a prerequisite for increasing production in the country and should be taken into account when assessing the investment aspects of the development of extractive industries.