Limit Allowable Value of the Bank of Russia Key Rate: Based on the Example of Agricultural Holdings

The purpose of the work is to substantiate the maximum value of the Bank of Russia key rate using the example of the activities of holdings in agricultural system. The results of the study are partially hypothetical and allow us to answer the question regarding the maximum permissible value of the key rate of the Bank of Russia, subject to the refusal of subsidizing bank lending and the use of bank loans by organizations in the agricultural system on market conditions. The average statistical values of profitability indicators for a sample of agricultural holdings were determined for the period 2009–2022, the values of which were: return on assets - 7%, return on current assets - 14.5%, return on equity - 19.5%. Provided that agricultural holdings use bank loans on market conditions, we determined that in the long term the key rate for such entities should not be higher than 4–5% per annum; in the medium term it is acceptable - no higher than 11.5–12.5% per annum; in the long term it is critical if the key rate is higher than 16.5–17.5% per annum.