Winter Wheat Productivity in Various Soil and Climatic Zones of the Central Fore-Caucasus Under Climate Change

This article analyzes winter wheat productivity in various soil and climatic zones of the Central Fore-Caucasus in the context of climate change stages. Agro-climatic reference books and statistical reports served as the basis for identifying the correlation between cereal crops productivity, cultivated area and hydrothermal coefficient over a period from 1991 to 1998 and 1999 to 2022 in 4 soil and climatic zones. The correlation analysis allowed to build simulation models and to estimate winter wheat productivity from 2024 to 2029. The calculations of the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) showed a slight deterioration of the territory humidification since the 2000s. There is a trend for HTC to decrease and for winter wheat productivity – to increase. In 2006, the intersection of trend lines resulted new conditions of cereal crop productivity. The correlation between cereal crops productivity, cultivated area and gross output is high and obvious (0.678416 and 0.947019, respectively). At the same time, the correlation between HTC and these indicators is weak and moderate. A further increase in the linear trend of crop productivity with a typical unpredictability for the certain soil and climatic zones is expected until the 30s of the XXI century. Estimates of winter crops productivity has revealed the possible growth in the first (from 33.06 to 35.81 kg/ha), the third (from 48.74 to 53.18 kg/ha) and the fourth (from 39.67 to 42.65 kg/ha) soil and climatic zones of the Central Fore-Caucasus. The decrease from 35.12 to 30.91 c/ha and the contradictions escalation between the crop cultivation adaptability to the climate change conditions and grain production are predicted only in the second zone.