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To the Issue of Determining the True Values of N.D. Kondratiev’s Cycles of Economic Conjuncture

  • Roman Dzerjinsky

摘要

This paper studies models and algorithms of data processing by means of the apparatus of almost periodic functions. A retrospective of the results of N.D. Kondratiev’s search for long cycles of economic conjuncture is given. The fluctuations and trend components of the corresponding time series are analyzed. A short-term forecast of stock market dynamics is also constructed. Preliminary exclusion of trend on the basis of the theory of proportions for further analysis of fluctuations of time series is made. The values of almost-periods are determined using the shift function. Based on the obtained almost-period value, a development cell is constructed.